Morning Market Notes 02-12-25

Market Calendar

Hot—very hot—CPI numbers just dropped, coming in 20 basis points above expectations.

We were looking forward to the unc2.0 today, but this range exceeds the safe limits of our algorithm. Will I play it anyway? Yes.

Why?

There’s a key combo at play here.

Indices were already weak to start the week, yet we kept pushing higher, likely setting up a range for this selloff into the 20-day SMAs across the board. On top of that, there was a massive amount of negative delta that needed hedging, and the 8:30 am print reaction should have taken care of a lot of it—if not all.

We’re set to open right around 6000 $SPX, which is my main watch for the day. If we break below that level with strength, I’m looking for a test of 5950.

With the potential for a 50-point move, that’s more than enough for the unc2.0 to at least pay for itself.

Let’s have a sesh.

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