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savage-notes

A collection of 29 posts

Morning Market Notes 02-21-25

Morning Market Notes 02-21-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ It’s OPEX day, and we’re here for it. Before the week kicked off, we mentioned that the Dow Jones would be the thermometer for major price moves—and I guess we nailed that one again. On Wednesday, when the Dow showed a little

Morning Market Notes 02-19-25

Morning Market Notes 02-19-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ The S&P pushed to new all-time highs right at the close of yesterday’s session, aligning with our reasoning for a continued pump to start the week. Now, it’s all about the Dow Jones ($DIA)—if they manage to push it to

Morning Market Notes 02-18-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ This weekend, we mentioned that an upside breakout was likely, and that’s exactly what we’re starting to see with this overnight Futures action. I still believe the Dow Jones needs to cooperate for this move to be sustainable. As you can see through

Morning Market Notes 02-14-25

Morning Market Notes 02-14-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Happy Valentine’s Day. After the CPI dump pre-market on Wednesday, downside signals from technicals have reset as ETFs tied to indices reclaimed their 20-day SMAs. With that in mind, there’s no reason to be bearish unless we break below 6100 $SPX with strength.

Morning Market Notes 02-13-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ After a massive day in the markets fueled by the extra-hot CPI print, we head into the PPI session with not nearly as much excitement. We’re also seeing some mixed signals on the daily charts for ETFs tied to major indices. The big three—

Morning Market Notes 02-12-25

Morning Market Notes 02-12-25

Market Calendar Hot—very hot—CPI numbers just dropped, coming in 20 basis points above expectations. We were looking forward to the unc2.0 today, but this range exceeds the safe limits of our algorithm. Will I play it anyway? Yes. Why? There’s a key combo at play here.

Morning Market Notes 02-11-25

Morning Market Notes 02-11-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Should I share the good or the bad news first. Well, that spread guy is back, and we all know how the market tends to behave when those positions are in play. Their levels today are set at 6025-30 and 6090-95 $SPX. That’s the

Morning Market Notes 02-10-25

Morning Market Notes 02-10-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ In my weekend notes, I highlighted the bearish signals stemming from index-related ETFs, and right on cue, we gapped down at Futures open just minutes before the Super Bowl. It seems the tariffs chatter is losing traction for the pre-market session, despite headlines continuing to

Morning Market Notes 02-06-25

Morning Market Notes 02-06-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ We’re seeing a low-volume recovery across ETFs tied to major indices. Today, we’ve got $AMZN’s Q4 earnings report, followed by another key NFP print tomorrow morning. There’s not much to expect from today’s session—and I’m not saying that

Morning Market Notes 02-05-25

Morning Market Notes 02-05-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ The market reacted to $GOOGL’s earnings report, hitting lows around 5 am this morning. We still have two days until NFP, with $AMZN also reporting tomorrow after the close. The key level to watch remains 6K $SPX, as we recently recovered it with the

Morning Market Notes 02-04-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Technicals had their way from Sunday night’s Futures open through the opening bell yesterday with a violent flush driven by the tariffs chatter. Flow didn’t provide much insight at yesterday’s close, so we start this session with a clean slate. Odds are,

Morning Market Notes 02-03-25

Morning Market Notes 02-03-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ As mentioned in yesterday’s market calendar notes, equities were already in a tough spot from a technical perspective coming into this week. The continued tariff chatter over the weekend acted as the perfect catalyst to drag us back down to the mid-5900 levels on

Morning Market Notes 01-31-25

Morning Market Notes 01-31-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ As mentioned in yesterday’s notes, the China virus gap was inevitable. Now, enter EOM flows. Since we’re gapping above the Deepseek virus level and set to open near 6100 $SPX, there’s no reason to dispute the data. Put walls moving higher signal

Morning Market Notes 01-30-25

Morning Market Notes 01-30-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Zuck delivered, as usual. $META reported another brilliant quarter with $8.02 EPS, up 50% YoY. Today, we’re set to open without much change in levels. JPow wasn’t hawkish enough to push us below 6K, so a pamp might be in the works.

Morning Market Notes 01-29-25

Morning Market Notes 01-29-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Happy FOMC day. What a session ahead with JPow bringing the news with the interest-rate decision, followed by more action after hours as $META, $MSFT, and $TSLA deliver their Q4 reports. Although we see the $QQQ call wall moving down, which is usually bearish, there

Morning Market Notes 01-28-25

Morning Market Notes 01-28-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ After the China-virus reaction, aka Deepseek, we shift our focus to the FOMC and the few Mag7 names reporting this week. For $SPX, there’s an immense wall at 6000 that will likely provide support into those data drops. The Qs, however, don’t look

Morning Market Notes 01-27-25

Morning Market Notes 01-27-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ The Deepseek China Virus AI made its way through social media, especially on X, and we’re already seeing its first impacts on the markets. I was one of the first (if not the first) trading accounts to report on it. So, if you’re

Morning Market Notes 01-24-25

Morning Market Notes 01-24-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ After being beaten up twice in a row, the spread people are back, now positioning puts at 6085-6090 and calls at 6140-6145. But the amount of money today is even larger, almost doubling yesterday’s. Algo time activity on $SPX yesterday ensured their spread would

Morning Market Notes 01-23-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Guess what? The spread guys are back. Now they’re loading up on 6110 and 6115 above spot, and 6055 and 6060 below the opening price. Yesterday, since we broke their range, they most likely took a loss. If we follow the same pattern from

Morning Market Notes 01-22-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ $NFLX earnings beat skyrocketed the stock by over 100 points—an impressive reaction despite lackluster dark pool activity before the call. In yesterday’s notes, we mentioned that if 6K $SPX held, 6050 was the next target. Sure enough, it was, with yesterday’s highs

Morning Market Notes 01-21-25

Morning Market Notes 01-21-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ We’re set to open above 6000 on $SPX, the largest node in terms of options for the S&P index. The idea here is that if we hold 6K, the next target is 6050. While there are signs of momentum in the technicals

Morning Market Notes 01-17-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Per 0DTHERO, we clearly see the zone between 5950 and 6000 $SPX acting as a magnet area for the day. This gamma chart applies only to today. Since it’s OPEX, we expect these positions to be rolled or cleared so we can move on

Morning Market Notes 01-16-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ In yesterday’s notes, we mentioned that the move was already made pre-market, and that’s exactly what happened. $ES_F moved over 120 points compared to $SPX’s relatively tame 50-point range. Per 0DTHERO, we see a shift upward on walls across the board.

Morning Market Notes 01-15-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ An absolute overreaction to a 0.1% CPI YoY miss below expectations – 75 points on $ES_F off the print. This exaggerated range exceeds the unc2.0 algorithm, so that’s off the table. Interestingly, nothing has changed in terms of levels for OPEX on

Morning Market Notes 01-14-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ The PPI print came slightly below expectations, triggering a beautiful 40+ point green candle on $ES_F. The implied move for the day sits above 1%, which aligns with the options landscape and flows. In our notes yesterday, I mentioned that upside was likely above